Probability Depends on Frequency

Author: Zhang Suhang

For a long time, people have taken it for granted: the possibility of an event exists inherently. Only after repeated occurrences can we observe its pattern.

But the real logic in reality runs the other way around.

Frequency comes first; probability follows.

 

I. No views, no likes

Suppose a video gets zero views and no one watches it.

There is no possibility of likes, collections or shares for this video.

It is not that the probability equals zero; rather, this probability does not exist at all.

Only as more people watch, and view counts keep rising, do likes, collections and shares start to appear. The corresponding proportion gradually takes shape and emerges.

With fewer viewers, the data is erratic.

With more viewers, the proportion becomes clearer and more stable.

Without repeated actions, there can be no such thing as probability.

Probability is not preset in advance. It emerges little by little through every single viewing action.

 

II. No theft, no risk of arrest

If someone stops stealing completely and commits no more crimes,

there is no possibility that he will be arrested for theft.

So long as the act does not happen, the risk does not exist.

On the contrary, the more thefts he commits, the more traces, clues and records he leaves behind. The chance of being discovered and arrested grows step by step.

It is not that he is inherently prone to getting caught.

Instead, repeated acts of theft gradually build up the possibility of arrest.

 

III. The plain truth

These two ordinary real-life examples illustrate the same principle:

Probability cannot exist out of thin air.

All probability depends on the frequency of actions.

No occurrence, no possibility.

No accumulation of trials, no stable pattern.

Probability is not static or preordained.

It is shaped and formed progressively by repeated actions and their frequency.

First comes occurrence, then probability.

First comes frequency, then pattern.

This is the true order of randomness in the real world.